Introduction
“By 2028, the Philippines’ population will overtake Japan’s” — until just a few years ago, this forecast was treated as an almost unquestioned premise in discussions of Southeast Asia’s growth story. Based on the United Nations’ medium population projections, major media outlets including Japan’s Nikkei repeatedly reported the contrast between “a young Philippines and an aging Japan,” and estimates that the Philippines’ “demographic dividend” would last from around 2045 until as late as 2075 were widely shared.
But in 2026, news emerged that shook that premise. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the total fertility rate (TFR) for 2023–25 had fallen to a record low of 1.7 — well below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain a population. A country once called “Asia’s last bastion” of high fertility is, within just a few years, joining the ranks of low-birthrate nations.
This article lays out, with a timeline, the optimistic demographic outlook the Philippines once took pride in before the pandemic, and the sharp changes that have followed it, and considers what they mean.
Timeline: The Light and Shadow of Philippine Demographics
- 1970s: Total fertility rate (TFR) above 6.0 — the Philippines establishes itself as a high-fertility nation
- 2013: Population surpasses 100 million; UN medium projections widely reported to forecast the Philippines “overtaking Japan by 2028”
- 2017: TFR falls to 2.7 (still above the 2.1 replacement level)
- 2019 (pre-pandemic): With a high share of working-age population, estimates hold that the “demographic dividend” will last until 2045, or as late as 2075 in long-range forecasts
- 2020: COVID-19 spreads; census puts total population at approximately 109.04 million
- 2020–2022: Strict pandemic lockdowns, disruption to healthcare and maternity services, and economic anxiety affect family planning
- 2021: TFR plunges to 1.8 (announced by the NEDA Secretary)
- 2022: TFR at 1.9 — a sharp drop from 2.7 in 2017, falling below the 2.1 replacement level for the first time
- July 2024: Census puts total population at approximately 112.73 million; the 2020–24 population growth rate is 0.8%, sharply down from 1.63% in 2015–20
- March 2026: PSA announces a 2023–25 TFR of 1.7, a record low; analysts warn of the risk of “getting old before getting rich”
- 2026: The Philippines’ estimated population stands at roughly 117.7 million. Under UN medium projections, a gap with Japan’s population (around 120 million) still remains, but the high fertility rate that underpinned the “2028 overtake” scenario has already collapsed
(Note: PSA = Philippine Statistics Authority; NEDA = National Economic and Development Authority; TFR = Total Fertility Rate)
Before COVID: The Story of a “Demographic Dividend” Nation
Before the pandemic, the narrative surrounding the Philippines was consistently upbeat. With a median age in the early twenties and a working-age population (ages 15–64) making up more than 60% of the total, UN population projections forecast that the Philippines would “reach 123 million and overtake Japan by 2028.” Against this demographic backdrop, the Philippines was dubbed “Asia’s next economic tiger,” leveraging its abundant young workforce and English proficiency to expand its BPO industry, including call centers, and post strong real GDP growth.
The fertility rate itself had been gradually declining from more than 6.0 in the 1970s, but as of 2017 it still stood at 2.7 — a level that continued to grow the population. This “youthfulness” was the single biggest reason the Philippines drew attention as both an investment destination and a source of labor.
After COVID: The “Miscalculation” of a Sudden Fertility Decline
But the pace of decline since the start of the 2020s has outstripped even expert predictions. From 2.7 in 2017, the rate fell to 1.9 in 2022, and then all the way down to 1.7 in 2023–25. In other words, within just a few years of dropping below the 2.1 replacement level, it fell by more than a further 0.2 points.
The PSA attributes this slowdown in population growth to a combination of factors beyond the falling birthrate itself, including elevated mortality during the pandemic and increased emigration. As for the underlying social factors, it points to:
- Rising age of marriage and childbirth as women pursue higher education and careers
- Rising living costs, particularly in urban areas, and inflation increasing the burden of raising children
- Declining influence of the Catholic Church and diversifying values, including reduced resistance to contraception and family planning
- Changes in lifestyle and values driven by the spread of social media
In a country where roughly 80% of the population is Catholic and resistance to contraception and family planning has long run deep, such a rapid decline in births is considered highly unusual.
Analysts have also warned that the Philippines faces a growing risk of falling into the trap many emerging economies have encountered — “getting old before getting rich.”
What Becomes of the “Demographic Dividend”?
A demographic dividend refers to a favorable population structure — a high share of working-age people — that boosts economic growth. The Philippines’ dividend was once expected to last until 2045, or as late as 2075 under optimistic long-term scenarios, but the sharp fall in fertility is now shaking that very premise.
That said, some argue the decline in fertility need not be viewed only pessimistically. The Commission on Population and Development (CPD) has also acknowledged that falling fertility can bring economic benefits, such as poverty reduction and a rising labor force participation rate, with forecasts suggesting a labor force participation rate above 63% could continue into the early 2030s. The median age of the population remains young, at around 26, leaving open the possibility that the Philippines can retain its strength in labor supply for another decade or more.
Will the “Population Reversal” with Japan Actually Happen?
The forecast widely reported around 2013–14 that the Philippines would “overtake Japan by 2028” was based on the UN’s medium population projections at the time. Because Japan’s own population continues to decline, the gap between the two countries remains on a narrowing trend. But with the Philippines’ fertility rate having fallen this sharply, it has become uncertain whether the timing of any reversal, and the population trajectories that would follow, will unfold as originally assumed.
In any case, the simple contrast of “an aging Japan and a young Philippines” appears to be entering a phase in which it will itself have to be reconsidered.
Conclusion
Across the great divide of the pandemic, the Philippines’ demographic image is shifting dramatically — from a “thriving demographic-dividend nation” to a “country undergoing rapid fertility decline.” While the overall population continues to grow in absolute terms, its underlying substance — the fertility rate, the future shape of its age structure — has clearly begun to diverge from the optimistic scenarios described before COVID.
From the perspective of someone who has long done business in the Philippines, this shift cannot be overlooked. Business strategies premised on a young workforce and robust domestic consumption may need to be reconsidered over the coming ten to twenty years. How long the tailwind of the demographic dividend will last, and how the Philippine economy will adapt once it fades, are themes we intend to keep watching closely.
Sources: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), UN Population Division World Population Prospects, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) overseas business information, and various news reports.
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